Cocoa Production Stability in Relation to Changing Rainfall and Temperature in East Java, Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29244/jtcs.5.1.6-17Abstract
Climate change as indicated by rising temperature and changing rainfall pattern has been known to affect cacao production in many production countries. However, studies on the effects of rainfall and temperature variability on the cacao production are rarely reported in Indonesia. Hence, the objective of this study is to evaluate the stability of cocoa production in relation to rainfall and temperature variability in order to develop sustainable production under climate change scenario. Research was conducted at a state owned company in Jember District, East Java, Indonesia from February to June 2015. Production and climatic data of 2010-2015 were evaluated using simple regression and correlation analysis. Results revealed that productivity fluctuated among months and among years. However, the fluctuation among months (s2 = 117.076) was lower than among years (s2 = 311.225). Rainfall and temperature showed variability among months and among years; and the fluctuation among months was lower in both rainfall and temperature. Rainfall at one to four months before harvest correlated with production (r=0.400-0.671; P= 0.000 to 0.001) and temperature at two to four months before harvest determined cocoa production (r=0.371-0.412; P=0.001-0.003). High monthly cocoa production coincided with decreasing temperature and rainfall for 4 to 5 months during pod development. The presented study implies that both short and long term strategies should be implemented under climatic variability to sustain cocoa production. It is recommended to apply production technology to stabilize micro climate temperature and to minimize the impact of high rainfall such as shade plant and canopy manipulation.
References
[Dirjenbun] Direktorat Jenderal Perkebunan. (2016). Tree Crop Estate Statistics of Indonesia 2015-2017: Cocoa. Directorate General of Estate Crops, Ministry of Agriculture Republic of Indonesia. http://ditjenbun.pertanian.go.id. [January 25, 2018].
[NOAA] National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (2017). Analysis monitoring enso-stuff enso-years. http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ analysis_monitoring/ ensostuff/ONI_v5.php [January 25, 2018].
[USAID] United States Agency for International Development. (2012). Indonesia climate vulnerability profile. https://www.climatelinks.org/sites/default/files/asset /document/indonesia_climate_vulnerability_profile_jan2013.pdf. [January 25, 2018].
Adjaloo, M.K., Oduro, W., and Banful, B.K. (2012). Floral phenology of upper amazon cocoa trees: Implications for reproduction and productivity of cocoa. ISRN Agronomy 2012, ID 461674. DOI: 10.5402/2012/461674.
Afoakwa, E.O. (2014). “Cocoa Production and Processing Technology”. CRC Press. Boca Raton London New York. 374p.
Alvim, P.T. (1988). Relações entre fatores climáticos e produção do cacaueiro In “Proceeding of 10th International Cocoa Research Conference” pp.159167. Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
Arfitasari, R.D. (2015). “Analysis of Technical Efficiency Factors Using of Bulk Cocoa Commodity Production at PTPN XII Kebun Banjarsari Jember”. [Undergraduate thesis]. Department of Agribusiness, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Jember. http://repository.unej.ac.id
Bertolde, F.Z., Almeida, A.A.F., Pirovani, C.P., Gomes, F.P., Ahnert, D., Baligar, V.C., and Valle, R.R. (2012). Physiological and biochemical responses of Theobroma cacao L. genotypes to flooding. Photosynthetica 50, 447457. DOI: 10.1007/s11099-012-0052-4
Bulandari, S. (2016). Effect of cocoa production on economic growth in Kolaka Utara District. [Undergraduate thesis]. Department of Economics, Faculty of Economy and Moslem Bussiness, Alaudin Islamic State University, Makassar, Indonesia. Http://repositori.uin-alauddin.ac.id
Carr, M.K.V., and Lockwood, G. (2011). The water relation and irrigation requirements of cacao (Theobroma cacao L.): a review. Experimental Agriculture 47, 653676.
Daymond, A.J. and Hadley, P. (2008). Differential effects of temperature on fruit development and bean quality of contrasting genotypes of cacao (Theobroma cacao). Annals of Applied Biology 153, 175185. DOI: 10.1111/j.1744-7348.2008.00246.x
De Almeida, A-A.F., and Valle, R.R. (2007). Ecophysiology of the cacao tree. Brazilian Journal of Plant Physiology 19, 426448. DOI:10.1590/S1677-042020070004000 11.
Estiningtyas, W., Ramadhani, F., and Aldrian, E. (2007). Correlation analysis of rainfall and Indonesia sea surface temperature, and its implications on rainfall prediction: Cilacap case study. Jurnal Agromet Indonesia 21, 46–60.
Hazriyal, Y., Anhar, A., and Karim, A. (2015). Evaluation of land characteristics and cocoa production in Peudawa and Peunaron subdistricts, East Aceh district. Jurnal Manajemen Sumberdaya Lahan 4, 579590.
Irfanda, M., and Santosa, E. (2016). Production estimation of oil palm (Elaeis guineensis Jacq.) in Sei Air Hitam estate base on agroecological factors. Buletin Agrohorti 4, 282287. DOI: 10.29244/agrob.4.3.282-287
Istiqomah, S., Hanani, N., and Dwiastuti, R. (2014). The economics behavior of Indonesian cocoa. Habitat 25, 135142.
Juanda, B. (2009). “Econometics Modelling and Estimation”. IPB Press, Bogor. 240 p. (In Indonesian).
Kawati, E.R. (2013). “Financial Feasibility and Prospect of Bulk Cocoa Farming at PTPN XII (Persero) Banjarsari Plantation, Jember Regency”. [Undergraduate thesis]. Department of Social-Economics of Agriculture, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Jember, Indonesia. http://repository.unej.ac.id. [January 25, 2018].
Läderach, P., Martinez, A., Schroth, G., and Castro, N. (2013). Predicting the future climatic suitability for cocoa farming of the world´s leading producer countries, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire. Climate Change 119, 841854. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0774-8
Martínez-Pinilla, E., Oñatibia-Astibia, A., and Franco, R. (2015). The relevance of theobromine for the beneficial effects of cocoa consumption. Frontiers in Pharmacology 6, 30. DOI: 10.3389/fphar.2015.00030.
McNamara, K.E., and Prasad, S.S. (2014). Coping with extreme weather: communities in Fiji and Vanuatu share their experiences and knowledge. Climatic Change 123, 121132.
Medina, V., and Laliberte, B. (2017). A review of research on the effects of drought and temperature stress and increased CO2 on Theobroma cacao L., and the role of genetic diversity to address climate change. Costa Rica: Bioversity International. https://www.bioversityinternational.org/fileadmin/user_upload/Review_laliberte_2017_new.pdf.
Mirer, T.W. (1995). “Economic Statistics and Econometrics”. Prentice Hall. 449p.
Moser, G., Leuschner, C., Hertel, D., Hölscher, D., Köhler, M., Leitner, D., Michalzik, B., Prihastanti, E., Tjitrosemito, S., and Schwendenmann, L. (2010). Response of cocoa trees (Theobroma cacao) to a 13-month desiccation period in Sulawesi, Indonesia. Agroforestry Systems 79, 171187. DOI: 10.1007/s10457-010-9303-1.
Ntiamoah, A., and Afrane, G. (2009). Life Cycle Assessment of Chocolate Produced in Ghana. pp 35-41. In Appropriate Technologies for Environmental Protection in the Developing World (E.K. Yanful, ed.). Springer, Dordrecht. DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4020-9139-1_5.
Omolaja, S.S., Aikpokpodion, P., Adedeji, S., and Vwioko, D.E. (2009). Rainfall and temperature effects on flowering and pollen productions in cocoa. African Crop Science Journal 17, 4148.
Ortiz, F. (2016). Theobroma cacao L Monograph. Colegio Bolivar 2016-17. http://www.colegiobolivar.edu.co/garden/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/FOrtiz-Theobroma-cacao-2017.pdf.
Oyekale, A.S., Bolaji, M.B., and Olawa, O.W. (2009). The effects of climate change on cocoa production and vulnerability assesment in Nigeria. Agriculture Journal 4, 7785.
Prawoto, A.A. (2014). Pattern of flushing, cherelle wilt, and accuracy of yield forecasting of some cocoa clones. Pelita Perkebunan 30, 100-114.
Purwanto, I.J., and Santosa, E. (2016). Relationship between fruit quality and precipitation on free fatty acids content of palm oil. Buletin Agrohorti 4, 250255. DOI: 10.29244/agrob.4.3.250-255
Purwati, E. (2011). “Relationship of Inoculum Density and Disease Intensity of VSD on Cocoa Planting at Two Locations of Plantation Area of PTPN XII”. [Undergraduate thesis]. Department of Agronomy, Faculty of Agriculture, the University of Jember. http://repository.unej.ac.id.
Santosa, E., Sulistio, H., and Dharmawan, I. (2011). Estimation of oil palm production in Kalimantan using agronomical and agroecological data. Jurnal Agronomi Indonesia 39, 193199.
Sari, I.A., and Susilo, A.W. (2015). Phenology of flowering and pod maturity on some cocoa clones (Theobroma cacao L). Pelita Perkebunan (Coffee and Cocoa Research Journal) 3, 7380.
Sarini. (2017). Efficiency on cocoa agroinputs uses at Dolago village Parigi Selatan subdistrict, Parigi Moutong District. e-Jurnal Mitra Sains 5, 3747.
Schroth, G., Läderach, P., Martinez-Valle, A.I., Bunn, C., and Jassogne, L. (2016). Vulnerability to climate change of cocoa in West Africa: Patterns, opportunities and limits to adaptation. Science of the Total Environment 556, 231241. DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.03.024.
Suwandi, Zaim, Y., and Tjasyono, H.K.B. (2014). The effect of a hundred years period (1991-2000) enso and dipole mode activities on rainfall patterns in Maluku and Papua regions. Jurnal Meteorologi dan Geofisika 15, 7176.
Teixeira, P.J.P.L., Thomazella, D.P.T., and Pereira, G.A.G. (2015). Time for chocolate: Current understanding and new perspectives on cacao witches’ broom disease research. PLoS Pathogens 11, e1005130. DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1005130.
Tjasadihardja, A. (1987). “Relationship between flushing, pod development, and indole acetic acid in seed and cherelle wilt in cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.)”. [PhD Dissertation]. Faculty of Graduate School. Bogor Agricultural University, Bogor, Indonesia. http://repository.ipb.ac.id.
Towaha, J., and Wardiana, E. (2015). Evaluation of the tolerance levels of 35 cacao genotypes to dry periods. Jurnal Tanaman Industri dan Penyegar 2, 133142. DOI: 10.21082/jtidp.v2n3.2015.p133-142.
Valle, R.R., Silva, W.S., and Miranda, R.A.C. (1987). Stomatal resistance and transpiration rates of shaded and unshaded cacao trees. Revista Theobroma 17, 175-187.
Vanhove, W., Vanhoudt, N., and Van Damme, P. (2016). Effect of shade tree planting and soil management on rehabilitation success of a 22-year-old degraded cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) plantation. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 219, 14-25. DOI: 10.1016/j.agee.2015.12.005.
Wanger, T.C., Tscharntke, T., Schroth, G., and Klein, A-M. (2014). Pollination curbs climate risk to cocoa. Nature 511, 155. DOI: 10.1038/511155b.
Wibawa, A., and Baon, J.B. (2008). Land suitability In “Cocoa” (T. Wahyudi, R. T. Pangabean and Pujiyanto, eds). pp. 6367. Penebar Swadaya. Jakarta. (In Indonesian).
Wijayanti, V.R. (2010). “Cocoa farming and economic level of farmer in Banjarasri village, Kalibawang subdistrict, Kulon Progo district”. [Undergraduate thesis]. Study Program of Geographic Education, Faculy of Social Science and Economic, State University of Yogyakarta. https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/11059024.pdf
Witjaksono, J., and Asmin. (2016). Cocoa farming system in Indonesia and its sustainability under climate change. Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries 5, 170-180. DOI: 10.11648/j.aff.20160505.15.
Zuidema, P.A., Leffelaar, P.A., Gerritsma, W., Mommer, L., Anten, N.P.R. (2005). A physiological production model for cocoa (Theobroma cacao): Model presentation, validation and application. Agricultural System 84, 195-225.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
All publications by Journal of Tropical Crop Science is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
